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Make the necessary calculations to verify the Empirical Rule for normal distributions, which states that the probability is approximately 0.68.
Discuss how having more information (assessments) can lead to ambiguity in the distribution choice instead of identifying a unique distribution.
In the binomial example with Melissa Bailey, what is the probability that she will be gone six or more weekends?
How is it that these probability estimates could vary so widely? How should a decision maker deal with probability estimates that are so different?
What kinds of information should a jury consider when deciding whether a plaintiff's claims of damages are reasonable? Anecdotes?
What issues must be taken into account? What kind of scientific evidence would help in making the necessary assessments?
Many people prefer A in the first choice and D in the second. Do you think this is inconsistent? Explain.
Which would make the sketched CDF smoother and smoother. How do we know when to stop making assessments and when to keep going?
When your parents express concern, what statistical phenomenon might you invoke to persuade them not to worry about the D?
Which probability assessment heuristic is at work in the gambler's fallacy? Explain.
In particular, what did you learn in your research that had an impact on the assessment? What kinds of decomposition helped you in your assessment process?
Assess the probability that you will be hospitalized for more than one day during the upcoming year. In what other ways might this assessment be decomposed?
Does p = q? Which of the two assessments are you more confident about? Would you adjust your assessments to make p = q? Why or why not?
Repeat part a, but construct the extended Swanson-Megill approximations. Compare your estimated expected values from the two methods.
What is the probability of finding no chocolate chips in a given cookie? Fewer than 5 chocolate chips? More than 10 chips?
Given your posterior probability, should your company adopt the new machines in order to minimize expected repair costs?
If the interviewer selects 20 people randomly, what is the probability that more than 15 of them will favor building the park?
What is the expected number of nonconforming bottles in the 20 cases after they have been inspected and rectified using the scheme described in part b?
Is it reasonable to assume that the Poisson distribution is appropriate for finding the probabilities that we need? Why or why not?
Without knowing how the trust is invested, what is the probability that the investment earns between 6% and 18%?
Find the probability that a strike lasts less than 6 days. Find the probability that a strike lasts between 6 and 7 days.
In a survey at a shopping center, the interviewer asks customers. Find the probability that a customer has been shopping for 36 minutes or less.
Many operations researchers would use a Poisson distribution in this case. Why might the Poisson be appropriate? Why might it not be appropriate?
Assuming that the test scores follow a normal distribution, what is the percentage of problem drinkers identified as not having a problem?
A greeting card shop makes cards that are supposed to fit into 6-inch (in.) envelopes. Find the probability that a card will not fit into a 6-in. envelope.