Your friend is the owner of a stock which had returns of 25 percent, -36 percent, 1 percent, and 16 percent for the past four years. Your friend thinks the stock may be able to achieve a return of 50 percent or more in a single year. Based on these returns, what is the probability that your friend is correct?
a. greater than 0.5 percent but less than 1.0 percent
b. less than 0.5 percent
c. greater than 16.0 percent
d. greater than 2.5 percent but less than 16 percent
e. greater than 1.0 percent but less than 2.5 percent