Task
You work in the Foreign Exchange division of a Grain Brokergae company, buying grain from Australian farmers to sell into overseas markets. In order to correctly price your contracts for the coming season, you need to develop a view of the expected movement in the Australian dollar, with respect to the US dollar, over the next 12 months. You are to communicate this view in a brief to your manager, that summarises and collates all the relevant influences and comes up with a concluding comment regarding the likely direction of change.
You have collected some main pieces of information from your research already.
1. US interest rates will rise from their historic lows in the next 12 month,
2. Australian interest rates will remain stable over the next 12 months,
3. The Australian economy is forecast to experience continued better than expected growth rates, particularly when compared to the US,
4. The rate of inflation in the US is expected to be higher than the rate of inflation in Australia,
5. World comodity prices are predicted to decline over the next 12 months.