The following data represent total revenues (from all sources) for the Palmdale Human Service Agency for the past four fiscal years:
20X1 $15,000,000
20X2 $14,250,000
20X3 $14,000,000
20X4 $13,500,000
Forecast total revenues for fiscal year 20X5 using moving averages, weighted mov- ing averages, exponential smoothing, and time series regression. For moving aver- ages and weighted moving averages, use only the data for the past three fiscal years. For weighted moving averages, assign a value of 1 to the data for 20X2, a value of 2 to the data for 20X3, and a value of 3 to the data for 20X4. For exponen- tial smoothing, assume that the last forecast for fiscal year 20X4 was $13,000,000. You decide on the alpha to be used for exponential smoothing. For time series regression, use the data for all four fiscal years. Which forecast will you use? Why?