Which alternative should be chosen under the maxi-max


Question 1

You are given the following payoff table (in units of thousands of dollars) for a decision analysis problem without probabilities.

State of Nature

Alternatives

S1

S2

S3

S4

A1

25

30

20

24

A2

17

14

31

21

A3

22

22

22

22

A4

29

21

26

27

  1. which alternative should be chosen under the maxi-max criterion?
  2. Which alternative should be chosen under the maxi-min criterion?

Question 2

Warren Buffy is an enormously wealthy investor who has built his future through his legendary investing acumen. He currently has been offered three major investments and he would like to choose one. The first one is a conservative investment that would perform very well in an improving economy and only suffer a small loss in worsening economy. The second is a speculative investment that would perform extremely well in an improving economy but would do very badly in a worsening economy. The third is a countercyclical investment that would loss some money in an improving economy but would perform well in a worsening economy.

Warren believes that there are three possible scenarios over the lives of these potential investment: (1) an improving economy, (2) a stable economy and (3) a worsening economy. He is pessimistic about where the economy is headed, and so has assigned prior possibilities of 0.1, 0.5, and 0.4 respectively to these three scenarios. He also estimates that his profits under these respective scenarios are those given by the following table.


Improving

Economy ( $)

Stable

Economy ($)

Worsening Economy ($)

Conservative

Investment

30 million

5million

-10million

Speculative

Investment

40million

10million

-30million

Countercyclical

Investment

-10million

0

15million

Prior probability

0.1

0.5

0.4

Which investment should Warren make under each of the following criteria?

  1. maxi-max criterion
  2. maxi-min criterion
  3. maximum likelihood criterion
  1. set up the spreadsheetand use solver for: Bayes' decision rule

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Strategic Management: Which alternative should be chosen under the maxi-max
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