Discuss the following:
Q: Two airlines offer conveniently scheduled flights to the airport nearest your corporate headquarters. Historically, flights have been scheduled as reflected in this transition matrix.
|
Current
Flight
|
Next Flight
|
|
Airline A
|
Airline B
|
|
Airline A
|
.6
|
.4
|
|
Airline B
|
.2
|
.8
|
If your last flight was on B, what is the probability your second next flight (that is, the flight after the next flight) will be on A?
Hint: What are the possible 'paths' leading from "last flight was on B" to "flight after next is on A?" how many paths are there? What transitions occur along the way in each path? What is the probability for each path?