The second question to the previous question posted is: Apply Holt's method to this data set and use solver to find the values of alpha and beta that minimize the MSE between the actual and predicted CPI values. What is the MSE using this technique? What is the forecasted CPI Value for November 205 and November 2006 using this technique? Please show how the formula is calculated.
Year |
Month |
Time period |
CPI |
1991 |
1 |
1 |
134.6 |
|
2 |
2 |
134.8 |
|
3 |
3 |
135.0 |
|
4 |
4 |
135.2 |
|
5 |
5 |
135.6 |
|
6 |
6 |
136.0 |
|
7 |
7 |
136.2 |
|
8 |
8 |
136.6 |
|
9 |
9 |
137.2 |
|
10 |
10 |
137.4 |
|
11 |
11 |
137.8 |
|
12 |
12 |
137.9 |
1992 |
1 |
13 |
138.1 |
|
2 |
14 |
138.6 |
|
3 |
15 |
139.3 |
|
4 |
16 |
139.5 |
|
5 |
17 |
139.7 |
|
6 |
18 |
140.2 |
|
7 |
19 |
140.5 |
|
8 |
20 |
140.9 |
|
9 |
21 |
141.3 |
|
10 |
22 |
141.8 |
|
11 |
23 |
142.0 |
|
12 |
24 |
141.9 |
1993 |
1 |
25 |
142.6 |
|
2 |
26 |
143.1 |
|
3 |
27 |
143.6 |
|
4 |
28 |
144.0 |
|
5 |
29 |
144.2 |
|
6 |
30 |
144.4 |
|
7 |
31 |
144.4 |
|
8 |
32 |
144.8 |
|
9 |
33 |
145.1 |
|
10 |
34 |
145.7 |
|
11 |
35 |
145.8 |
|
12 |
36 |
145.8 |
1994 |
1 |
37 |
146.2 |
|
2 |
38 |
146.7 |
|
3 |
39 |
147.2 |
|
4 |
40 |
147.4 |
|
5 |
41 |
147.5 |
|
6 |
42 |
148.0 |
|
7 |
43 |
148.4 |
|
8 |
44 |
149.0 |
|
9 |
45 |
149.4 |
|
10 |
46 |
149.5 |
|
11 |
47 |
149.7 |
|
12 |
48 |
149.7 |
1995 |
1 |
49 |
150.3 |
|
2 |
50 |
150.9 |
|
3 |
51 |
151.4 |
|
4 |
52 |
151.9 |
|
5 |
53 |
152.2 |
|
6 |
54 |
152.5 |
|
7 |
55 |
152.5 |
|
8 |
56 |
152.9 |
|
9 |
57 |
153.2 |
|
10 |
58 |
153.7 |
|
11 |
59 |
153.6 |
|
12 |
60 |
153.5 |
1996 |
1 |
61 |
154.4 |
|
2 |
62 |
154.9 |
|
3 |
63 |
155.7 |
|
4 |
64 |
156.3 |
|
5 |
65 |
156.6 |
|
6 |
66 |
156.7 |
|
7 |
67 |
157.0 |
|
8 |
68 |
157.3 |
|
9 |
69 |
157.8 |
|
10 |
70 |
158.3 |
|
11 |
71 |
158.6 |
|
12 |
72 |
158.6 |
1997 |
1 |
73 |
159.1 |
|
2 |
74 |
159.6 |
|
3 |
75 |
160.0 |
|
4 |
76 |
160.2 |
|
5 |
77 |
160.1 |
|
6 |
78 |
160.3 |
|
7 |
79 |
160.5 |
|
8 |
80 |
160.8 |
|
9 |
81 |
161.2 |
|
10 |
82 |
161.6 |
|
11 |
83 |
161.5 |
|
12 |
84 |
161.3 |
1998 |
1 |
85 |
161.6 |
|
2 |
86 |
161.9 |
|
3 |
87 |
162.2 |
|
4 |
88 |
162.5 |
|
5 |
89 |
162.8 |
|
6 |
90 |
163.0 |
|
7 |
91 |
163.2 |
|
8 |
92 |
163.4 |
|
9 |
93 |
163.6 |
|
10 |
94 |
164.0 |
|
11 |
95 |
164.0 |
|
12 |
96 |
163.9 |
1999 |
1 |
97 |
164.3 |
|
2 |
98 |
164.5 |
|
3 |
99 |
165.0 |
|
4 |
100 |
166.2 |
|
5 |
101 |
166.2 |
|
6 |
102 |
166.2 |
|
7 |
103 |
166.7 |
|
8 |
104 |
167.1 |
|
9 |
105 |
167.9 |
|
10 |
106 |
168.2 |
|
11 |
107 |
168.3 |
|
12 |
108 |
168.3 |
2000 |
1 |
109 |
166.6 |
|
2 |
110 |
168.8 |
|
3 |
111 |
169.8 |
|
4 |
112 |
171.2 |
|
5 |
113 |
171.3 |
|
6 |
114 |
171.5 |
|
7 |
115 |
172.4 |
|
8 |
116 |
172.8 |
|
9 |
117 |
173.7 |
|
10 |
118 |
174.0 |
|
11 |
119 |
174.1 |
|
12 |
120 |
174.0 |
2001 |
1 |
121 |
175.1 |
|
2 |
122 |
175.8 |
|
3 |
123 |
176.2 |
|
4 |
124 |
176.9 |
|
5 |
125 |
177.7 |
|
6 |
126 |
178.0 |
|
7 |
127 |
177.5 |
|
8 |
128 |
177.5 |
|
9 |
129 |
178.3 |
|
10 |
130 |
177.7 |
|
11 |
131 |
177.4 |
|
12 |
132 |
176.7 |
2002 |
1 |
133 |
177.1 |
|
2 |
134 |
177.8 |
|
3 |
135 |
178.8 |
|
4 |
136 |
179.8 |
|
5 |
137 |
179.8 |
|
6 |
138 |
179.9 |
|
7 |
139 |
180.1 |
|
8 |
140 |
180.7 |
|
9 |
141 |
181.0 |
|
10 |
142 |
181.3 |
|
11 |
143 |
181.3 |
|
12 |
144 |
180.9 |
2003 |
1 |
145 |
181.7 |
|
2 |
146 |
183.1 |
|
3 |
147 |
184.2 |
|
4 |
148 |
183.8 |
|
5 |
149 |
183.5 |
|
6 |
150 |
183.7 |
|
7 |
151 |
183.9 |
|
8 |
152 |
184.6 |
|
9 |
153 |
185.2 |
|
10 |
154 |
185.0 |
|
11 |
155 |
184.5 |
|
12 |
156 |
184.3 |
2004 |
1 |
157 |
185.2 |
|
2 |
158 |
186.2 |
|
3 |
159 |
187.4 |
|
4 |
160 |
188.0 |
|
5 |
161 |
189.1 |
|
6 |
162 |
189.7 |
|
7 |
163 |
189.4 |
|
8 |
164 |
189.5 |
|
9 |
165 |
189.9 |
|
10 |
166 |
190.9 |
|
11 |
167 |
191.0 |
|
12 |
168 |
190.3 |
2005 |
1 |
169 |
190.7 |
|
2 |
170 |
191.8 |
|
3 |
171 |
193.3 |
|
4 |
172 |
194.6 |
|
5 |
173 |
194.4 |
|
6 |
174 |
194.5 |
|
7 |
175 |
195.4 |
|
8 |
176 |
196.4 |
|
9 |
177 |
198.8 |
|
10 |
178 |
193.2 |
|
11 |
179 |
|
|
12 |
180 |