Assignment
1. What are 3 types of business forecasting methods?
2. What are 5 aspects of time series forecasts?
3. What is a shortcoming of using moving average to forecast?
4. What are two advantages of using a weighted forecast?
5. What is exponential smoothing and what is a shortcoming of it?
6. When evaluating a statistical result at 95% confidence, a P value of 3% would tell you to accept or reject the null hypothesis
7. What does a seasonal index of 1.25 mean?
8. Mean absolute deviation (MAD) is a measure of what and what is a weakness of it compared to MAPE?
Using Excel solve:
9. What are forecasted sales in month 4 using a simple moving average?
|
Month
|
Sales
|
Forecast
|
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1
|
3
|
|
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2
|
5
|
|
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3
|
8
|
|
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4
|
|
|
10. What are forecasted sales in month 4 using a weighted moving average?
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60%
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most recent month
|
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30%
|
2 months ago
|
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10%
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3 months ago
|
|
|
|
|
Month
|
Sales
|
|
|
1
|
3
|
|
|
2
|
5
|
|
|
3
|
8
|
|
|
4
|
|
|
11. What are forecasted sales in weeks 1 through 5 using exponential smoothing?
|
Week
|
Demand
|
Forecast (α=0.2)
|
|
1
|
500
|
|
|
2
|
600
|
|
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3
|
400
|
|
|
4
|
300
|
|
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5
|
500
|
|
12. What are forecasted sales in months 1 &2 using exponential smoothing with trend?
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|
|
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(β=0.4)
|
|
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(α=0.2)
|
|
Month
|
Actual
|
Smoothed Forecast
|
Smoothed Trend
|
Forecast Including Trend
|
|
1
|
10
|
9
|
2
|
|
|
2
|
20
|
|
|
|
13. Across the months of Jan - May what are the season indexes in sales?
|
Month
|
2001
|
2002
|
2003
|
Avg over 3 yrs
|
Monthly avg
|
Seasonal Index
|
|
Jan
|
60
|
67
|
70
|
|
|
|
|
Feb
|
64
|
68
|
69
|
|
|
|
|
March
|
90
|
98
|
100
|
|
|
|
|
April
|
100
|
105
|
110
|
|
|
|
|
May
|
100
|
110
|
120
|
|
|
|
14. How accurate is the forecasting department at predicting sales?
|
Month
|
Sales
|
Forecast
|
|
|
1
|
30
|
32
|
|
|
2
|
50
|
39
|
|
|
3
|
30
|
40
|
|
|
4
|
20
|
32
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
MAD =
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
MAPE =
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|
|
|
% accuracy =
|
|
15. Use tracking signals to answer if the forecast in control
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|
|
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Cummulative
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|
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|
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Absolute
|
Absolute
|
|
|
|
Month
|
Sales
|
Forecast
|
Error
|
RSFE
|
Forecast Error
|
Forecast Error
|
MAD
|
Tracking signal
|
|
1
|
30
|
32
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2
|
50
|
39
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3
|
30
|
40
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4
|
20
|
32
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
16. You are the manager of a toy factory. Sales have been steadily climbing year-on-year. Does the increase in sales follow a linear trend? If so, what is the equation and % variation in sales explained by the model? (Use Excel Data Analysis Regression).
|
Year
|
Sales
|
|
2012
|
2000
|
|
2013
|
3000
|
|
2014
|
3100
|
|
2015
|
3300
|
|
2016
|
3500
|
17. Using the VizDataEffectively file complete graphs for Benchmark (Ch 4 Effective Data Visualization) and BulletChart1 (Ch 4 Effective Data Visualization)
18. Using the Pivottablesample file, produce a 2D bar chart showing sum of years registered by Party?
Format your assignment according to the following formatting requirements:
1. The answer should be typed, double spaced, using Times New Roman font (size 12), with one-inch margins on all sides.
2. The response also includes a cover page containing the title of the assignment, the student's name, the course title, and the date. The cover page is not included in the required page length.
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