Suppose that the daily log return of a security follows the model
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where {at} is a Gaussian white noise series with mean zero and variance 0.02.
What are the mean and variance of the return series rt?
Compute the lag-1 and lag-2 autocorrelations of rt. Assume that r100 = -0.01, and r99 = 0.02.
Compute the 1-step and 2-step ahead forecasts of the return series at the forecast origin t = 100.
What are the associated standard deviations of the forecast errors?