Forecasting Problem Set
F-1 Weekly income for Quiet Mental Breakdown, an online psychology firm, is provided below. Determine, on the basis of minimizing the mean square error, whether a three-period or four-period simple moving average gives a better forecast.
|
Week
|
Income
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1
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980
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2
|
1040
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3
|
1120
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4
|
1050
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5
|
960
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6
|
990
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7
|
1030
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8
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1260
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9
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1240
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10
|
1100
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F-2 Using the table above, what is your forecast for week 11 using a three-period weighted average with weights of .6, .3 and .1? The weights are stated from the most current time period to the oldest time period.
F-3Using the table above, with smoothing constants of α = .10 and then α = .30, forecast income for week 11 using exponential smoothing.