We are examining a new project. We expect to sell 6,600 units per year at $60 net cash flow apiece for the next 10 years. In other words, the annual operating cash flow is projected to be $60 × 6,600 = $396,000. The relevant discount rate is 14 percent, and the initial investment required is $1,770,000. After the first year, the project can be dismantled and sold for $1,640,000. Suppose you think it is likely that expected sales will be revised upward to 9,600 units if the first year is a success and revised downward to 5,200 units if the first year is not a success.
a. If success and failure are equally likely, what is the NPV of the project? Consider the possibility of abandonment in answering.
b. What is the value of the option to abandon?