You have been asked by a retail association to develop an inventory control program for use on a PC. The program development requires the completion of the following three activities in sequence. You are concerned about the likelihood of finishing the project in the promised 10 days.
|
Activity
|
Description
|
Expected Time,
Days
|
Deviation from
Expected lime, Days
|
Probability
|
|
A
|
Write program
|
5
|
+2
|
0.1
|
|
B
|
Debug program
|
2
|
+1
|
0.2
|
|
C
|
Write user manual
|
3
|
0
|
0.3
|
|
|
|
|
-1
|
0.4
|
Using the Monte Carlo method, simulate 10 program development experiences. On the basis of your simulation results, what is the probability of finishing the project in 10 days?