(a) You are the project manager for a new high rise office building. You are working on estimating the exterior landscaping for the new development. The landscaping requires the use of a special landscape stone. Based on recent experience the most likely price for the material is $120.00/ton. However, the price for this stone is volatile, and the price fluctuates over time based on market conditions and material availability. The most optimistic price estimate is $80.00/ton, and the most pessimistic estimate is $180.00/ton. (Note there are 3 data points in for this estimate.)
What is the expected price of the material?
(b) In addition to price fluctuations, you are also uncertain of how much of the material will be required for the project. Scope changes and site conditions will affect the amount of material actually needed. The most likely amount required is 36 tons. However, as little as 28 tons, and as much as 56 tons might be required.
What is the expected amount of the material needed for the project?
(c) Using the estimates from (a) & (b), what is the expected cost for the material over the life of the project using the COMPLEX method?