The weekly box office revenues (in $ millions) for Terminator 3 are given here. Use these data in the Bass forecasting model given by equations (8.21) through (8.23) to estimate the parameters p, q, and m. Solve the model using Solver and see whether you can duplicate the results in Table 8.8.
|
Week
1
|
Terminator 3
72.39
|
|
2
|
37.93
|
|
3
|
17.58
|
|
4
|
9.57
|
|
5
|
5.39
|
|
6
|
3.13
|
|
7
|
1.62
|
|
8
|
0.87
|
|
9
|
0.61
|
|
10
|
0.26
|
|
11
|
0.19
|
|
12
|
0.35
|
The Bass forecasting model is a good example of a "hard" nonlinear program and the answer you get may be a local optimum that is not nearly as good as the result given in Table 8.8. If you find your results do not match those in Table 8.8, use the Multistart option as described in Appendix 8.2. Use a lower bound of -1 and an upper bound of 1 on both p and q. Use a lower bound of 100 and an upper bound of 1000 on m.
Text Book: An Introduction to Management Science: Quantitative Approaches to Decision. By David Anderson, Dennis Sweeney, Thomas Williams, Jeffrey Camm, James Cochran.