The number of cases of merlot wine sold by the Connor Owen winery in an eight-year period is as follows:
| YEAR |
CASES OF |
| MERLOT WINE |
| 2005 |
305 |
| 2006 |
391 |
| 2007 |
433 |
| 2008 |
491 |
| 2009 |
393 |
| 2010 |
535 |
| 2011 |
445 |
| 2012 |
411 |
Using an exponential smoothing model with an alpha value of 0.40, estimate the smoothed value calculated as of the end of 2012.
Use the average demand for 2005 through 2007 as your initial forecast for 2008, and then smooth the forecast forward to 2012.
(Round your intermediate calculations and final answer to the nearest whole number.)