Assignment
A plant engineering group needs to set up an assembly line to produce a new product. The following table describes the relationships between the activities that need to be completed for this product to be manufactured:
|
Activity
|
Days
|
Immediate Predecessors
|
|
a
|
m
|
b
|
|
A
|
3
|
6
|
8
|
|
|
B
|
5
|
8
|
10
|
A
|
|
C
|
5
|
6
|
8
|
A
|
|
D
|
1
|
2
|
4
|
B, C
|
|
E
|
7
|
11
|
17
|
D
|
|
F
|
7
|
9
|
12
|
D
|
|
G
|
6
|
8
|
9
|
D
|
|
H
|
3
|
4
|
7
|
F, G
|
|
I
|
3
|
5
|
7
|
E, F, H
|
Assume that each activity time is normally distributed with expected time and standard deviation computed as shown in equations 7-6 and 7-8, respectively, on page 283. Round off all activity times to two decimal places.
a) Use a Monte Carlo simulation to determine the probability that the project will finish in 37 days or less.
b) Use a Monte Carlo simulation to determine the probability that the project will take more than 32 days.