To estimate the prevalence of HIV, the State of New York implemented a policy of testing women who gave birth. The test that was used is known as ELISA; it is actually a test for the HIV antibody. Assume that ELISA has a sensitivity of 0.998 and a specificity of 0.998. (Both numbers are high; in particular ELISA gives more false positives than these numbers indicate.) An article in the American Journal of Public Health reports on the administration of the ELISA test to 108,562 women in rural upstate New York who gave birth between November of 1987 and March of 1990. Of these women.
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