Theme: "The EU and Turkey: Scenarios to 2050"
General guidelines:
a. The EU and Turkey can be seen in their long-term evolution (2050) either together or separately. The starting point should be the current relationship.
b. Two scenarios must be built: (i) Probable-Optimistic; (ii) Probable-Pessimistic.
c. Tools:
i. Assumptions underlying each scenario.
ii. PESTEL analysis-current situation and trends.
iii. Uncertainties analysis.
iv. Risk and Opportunity analysis (KT Situation Appraisal, WEF Risk Matrix, etc.).
v. Demographic and macroeconomic considerations.
vi. Course concepts (EU Institutions; European Integration and Europeanisation theories; Human rights. How do they affect your scenarios?)
d. Structure:
i. Current status of the relationship (very brief; no need to repeat history and what we all know).
ii External obstacles towards the accession progress (the EU point of view and Turkey's position on it).
iii. Internal obstacles (in Turkey) towards complying with the Copenhagen Criteria (particularly the political ones). Which factors and actors promote Europeanisation of Turkey; which hinder Europeanisation? Remedies to such obstacles?
iv. Other factors which may influence EU's and Turkey's preferences and behaviour in the long-term.
v. Alternatives to full membership. Which amongst these make sense?
vi. Scenario 1.
vii. Scenario 2.
viii. Evaluation of each scenario (risks, opportunities, probability of occurrence, impact on EU and Turkey in case of occurrence).
e. Recommendations and tips
- Have a couple of brainstorming sessions before you decide what your scenarios will be about.
- Effective scenarios describe generically different futures rather than variations of one theme.
- Have FUN throughout the scenario planning process. This is a creative exercise.
- Use milestones while drawing the scenario flow.
- Be creative rather than rational. Don't be afraid to have a ‘crazy' idea.
- Scenario planning is not linear thinking. Think of the improbable and how this can be handled.
- As said earlier, the scenarios should start at the current state of the accession process, but may evolve in any possible direction (i.e., EU and Turkey together, or taking separate paths).
- The EU is one dimension only of the world. For a long-term scenario you should think in three dimensions, globally.
- Your paper should be of academic standards (style, presentation, integrity).
- Don't leave editing to the last minute. Editing is as important, and more time consuming, than writing the paper. The reader can see very quickly whether a paper has been edited.
f. Ten check points for your presentation:
(i) prepare your slides as soon as you have a good final draft (you can correct the slides later). Preparing the slides will help you see any weaknesses in your paper;
(ii) make an outline of how the presentation will flow and who will present what;
(iii) rehearse individually and collectively, so that the flow from one presenter to the next is smooth and natural; and rehearse, rehearse, rehearse, and rehearse, until you can tell your text effortlessly;
(iv) each member of the group should be able to make the whole presentation alone (what happens if one member does not show up?);
(v) think collectively of any questions that may come from the examiner or the audience;
(vi) have additional information handy, in the event you have to justify your claims;
(vii) don't read-know your slides and your subject;
(viii) don't clutter your slides with text; use a word or a short sentence for each point you want to make; LESS IS MORE!;
(ix) if you have several bullet points in a slide, refer to the 2-3 most important ones only during your presentation (we can read the rest);