The president of State University wants to forecast student enrollment for this academic year based on the following historical data:
year Enrollments
5 years ago 15,000
4 years ago 16,000
3 years ago 18,000
2 years ago 20,000
1 year ago 21,000
A) What is forecast for this year using a three-period weighted moving average with weights of 0.3, 0.2, and 0.1?
B) What is the forecast for this year using exponential smoothing with alpha =0.4, given the forecast for 3 years ago was 16,000? What is the MAD of your forecasts?
C) What is the forecast for this year using the linear trend equation?