The following data represent total revenues (from all sources) for the Palmdale Human Service Agency for the past four fiscal years:
20X1 $15,000,000
20X2 $14,250,000
20X3 $14,000,000
20X4 $13,500,000
Forecast total revenues for fiscal year 20X5 using moving averages, weighted movingaverages, exponential smoothing, and time series regression. For moving averagesand weighted moving averages, use only the data for the past three fiscalyears. For weighted moving averages, assign a value of 1 to the data for 20X2, avalue of 2 to the data for 20X3, and a value of 3 to the data for 20X4. For exponentialsmoothing, assume that the last forecast for fiscal year 20X4 was $13,000,000.You decide on the alpha to be used for exponential smoothing. For time seriesregression, use the data for all four fiscal years. Which forecast will you use? Why?
Forecasting 131