Newspaper article frequently cite the fact that in any one year a small percentage (say 10%) of all drivers are responsible for all automobile accidents. The conclusion is often reached that if only we could single out these accident-prone drivers and either retrain them or remove them from the reads we could drastically reduce auto accidents. You are told that of 100,000 drivers who are involved in one or more accidents in one year, 11,000 of them were involved on one or more accidents the next year
Given the above information complete the entries in the joint probability table below
|
First Second
Year year
|
Accident
|
No Accident
|
Marginal probability
Of event in prior year
|
|
Accident
|
|
|
.10
|
|
No Accident
|
|
|
.90
|
|
Marginal probability of event in second year
|
.10
|
.90
|
1.00
|
b) Is searching for accident-prone drivers is an effective way to reduce auto accidents? Explain