1. The biggest problem with probabilistic reasoning is that
many people have great difficulty dealing with probabilistic information.
probabilities are really nothing more than guesses.
scientific principles must be stated as precise laws, not in terms of probabilities.
information that is stated in terms of probabilities is too vague to be useful.
2. Which of the following people is most likely to decide that he or she genuinely enjoyed a very boring task?
Alvin, who was paid $1 to tell another person that the task was enjoyable.
Simon, who was paid $20 to tell another person that the task was enjoyable.
Theodore, who was not asked to talk about the task to anyone at all.
There is no basis for saying that any of these people is more or less likely
than the others to decide that the task was enjoyable.