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Suppose we knew that he was late for the visit what is the

Problem: Your friend will come to visit you. Suppose that he will come by train with probability 1/6; by ship, car, pr plane with probability 1/6, 1/6, or ½, respectively.

If the probability is ¼ that he will be late by train; 1/3, 1/12 by ship, car, respectively; 0 by plane.

a. Suppose we knew that he was late for the visit. What is the probability that he came by train?

b. Suppose we knew that he was not late for the visit. What is the probability that he came by train?

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Basic Statistics: Suppose we knew that he was late for the visit what is the

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