Suppose the long run variance rate in a GARCH(1,1) model is 0.0002 so that the long-run volatility per day is 1.4%.
σ2n=0.00092+0.13u2t-1+0.86σ2n-1
Suppose that the current estimate of the volatility is 1.6% per day and the most recent percentage change in the market variable is 1%.What is the new variance estimate?