Project: Space Exploration
Description
A number of space probes left Earth for Planets in the past few years. One of the missions is estimated to cost £250m to £300m and it would become a European built probe on a spacecraft touching down on another planet. The aim is always simple - to find evidence of life, past or present, on another planet. The mission carries scientific instruments that will study the geology of planets and search for water under the surface. Research institutes throughout Europe have provided the instruments. A consortium of more than 20 companies from more than a dozen European countries and the USA built the spacecraft. The spacecraft will fly around the target planet for an entire planet year. Scientists are confident that if water is present on the Planet, the spacecraft with the probe will find it.
European scientists want the mission to:
a) map the composition of the surface at 100-m resolution
b) map the composition of the atmosphere and determine its global circulation
c) determine the structure of the sub-surface to a depth of a few kilometres
d) determine the effect of the atmosphere on the surface, and,
e) determine the interaction of the atmosphere with the solar wind
On landing, cameras on the probe's robotic arm will take close-up images of soil and rocks to look for interesting specimens. The samples will be analysed for chemical signs of life using a package of instruments on the probe.
The Launch
The spacecraft carrying the probe would be launched from earth and placed on the right trajectory for the interplanetary voyage. If all goes well, the journey would take a few months.
Judgmental Forecasting
We are interested in the following Forecasts:
1). To what extend do you think objectives a-e will be achieved?
2). Do you think water will be found in?
3). Do you thing close-up images will be captured?
You are going to follow the process for Structures Analogies for producing your forecasts as in the following pages
Judgmental Forecasting with Structured Analogies
In the tables provided below, please describe any analogous project to the one described. Please include details on:
- the similarities and differences between your analogous project and the target projects.
- their source (e.g. your own experience, media reports, history, literature, etc.)
- a similarity rating between your analogous project and the target projects (0 = no similarity... 5 = similar... 10 = high similarity)
- the outcome of your analogous project (which of the outcomes a-e found at the bottom, is most similar, in terms of effectiveness, to the outcome of your analogy?).
Attachment:- Forecasting Analogies Case One.rar