Short run proportions are often quite different from long-run probabilities.
1. In your own words, explain why we would expect proportions to fluctuate in the short run, but why long-run probabilities are more predictable?
2. What is the expected long-run probability of heads if you flip a coin many time? Why?
3. Flip a coin 10 times in a row. What proportions is heads? Do this 5 times.
4. Do the proportions in part c match the expected long-run probability in b? Why or why not
5. Imagine that a friend flipped a coin 10 times, got 9 out of 10 heads, and complained that the coin was biased. How would you explain to your friend the difference between short term and long term probability?