Annual world crude oil production, 1880-1998 (millions of barrels)
| Year |
Mbbl |
Year |
Mbbl |
Year |
Mbbl |
| 1880 |
30 |
1945 |
2595 |
1976 |
20188 |
| 1890 |
77 |
1950 |
3803 |
1978 |
21922 |
| 1900 |
149 |
1955 |
5626 |
1980 |
21722 |
| 1905 |
215 |
1960 |
7674 |
1982 |
19411 |
| 1910 |
328 |
1962 |
8882 |
1984 |
19837 |
| 1915 |
432 |
1964 |
10310 |
1986 |
20246 |
| 1920 |
689 |
1966 |
12016 |
1988 |
21338 |
| 1925 |
1069 |
1968 |
14104 |
1990 |
22100 |
| 1930 |
1412 |
1970 |
16690 |
1992 |
22028 |
| 1935 |
1655 |
1972 |
18584 |
1994 |
22234 |
| 1940 |
2150 |
1974 |
20389 |
1996 |
23380 |
| |
|
|
|
1998 |
24441 |
The data table offers information on world crude production from 1880 to 1998.
(a) Develop scatter plot which displays the relationship between years since 1800 and the crude oil production. Comments on what you see.
(b) It appears that no single model will explain the relationship between these variables effectively, Make a scatter plot of data from 1880 to 1972. (Be certain to use years since 1800!) Use transformation to liberalize the data, and then carry out an inverse transformation to obtain either power or exponential model that explain the relationship. Justify your choice of transformation with proper statistical evidence.
(c) Employ your model from (b) to predict crude oil production in 1974. How comfortable do you feel with this prediction? Support your answer with proper statistical evidence.
(d) Now make a scatter plot of data from 1982 to 1998 (again, employ years since 1800). Find out a linear, power, or exponential model which describes the crude oil production throughout this time period.
(e) Employ your model from (d) to predict crude oil production in 2002. how comfortable do you feel with this prediction? Support your answer with proper statistical evidence.