Problem: Using the following project information
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Activity
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Optimistic Time
Estimate(weeks)
|
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Most Likely Time
Estimates (weeks)
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Pessimistic Time
Estimates (weeks)
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Immediate
Predecessor(s)
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Variance
|
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Expected Time
(weeks)
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|
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A
|
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3
|
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6
|
|
9
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none
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1.000
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6.00
|
|
B
|
|
3
|
|
5
|
|
7
|
|
A
|
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0.444
|
|
5.00
|
|
C
|
|
4
|
|
7
|
|
12
|
|
A
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1.778
|
|
7.33
|
|
D
|
|
4
|
|
8
|
|
10
|
|
B
|
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1.000
|
|
7.67
|
|
E
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5
|
|
10
|
|
16
|
|
C
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3.361
|
|
10.17
|
|
F
|
|
3
|
|
4
|
|
5
|
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D,E
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0.111
|
|
4.00
|
|
G
|
|
3
|
|
6
|
|
8
|
|
D,E
|
|
0.694
|
|
5.83
|
|
H
|
|
5
|
|
6
|
|
10
|
|
F
|
|
0.694
|
|
6.33
|
|
I
|
|
5
|
|
8
|
|
11
|
|
G
|
|
1.000
|
|
8.00
|
|
J
|
|
3
|
|
3
|
|
3
|
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H,I
|
|
0.000
|
|
3.00
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The critical path is A-C-E-G-I-J.
(a) Calculate the probability that the project will be completed in 38 weeks.
P(project ≤ 38) =
(b) Calculate the probability that the project will be completed in 42 weeks.
P(project ≤ 42) =
(Round your answers to 3 decimal places, the tolerance is +/-0.005.)