Assignment Problem: Pandemic Influenza
Part 1: The Company hiring you wants you to work on an influenza pandemic model that helps the hospital to be prepared if and when such a pandemic strike. More specifically, they want to know how many patients are expected to be admitted per week both as general inpatients and possibly more important to the ICU. They are aware that ICU patients will most likely require special equipment (mechanical ventilators) and they want you to estimate the number of ventilators that would be needed and the number of beds.
Your customer would also like to have estimates for fatalities. The CFR has been discussed above (this is associated with the disease itself). But you also need to take into account that lack of ventilators or beds will lead to a (possible avoidable) death. You need to consider these two factors when calculating fatalities at the hospital.
They are also interested on estimates of the main medications that would be required: antiviral and antibiotics.
Also important for the hospital would be the number of consumables (gloves, protective clothing, facemasks12 and N95 masks13. However, given that the company is aware of your limited time, they are fine with you only calculating the number of gloves that will be required. They tell you that gloves are used every time staff has an encounter with a patient.
Part 2: The values provided above are mostly based on what documents produced by the NHS suggest. However, you have become really interested in this topic and having read different research documents and academic papers, have found that some values such as those for CAR (clinical attack rate) are substantially different from those suggested by the NHS. So you have suggested to the Company hiring you to look at estimates using these alternative values in the hope that further research in the near future will clarify the true values of some important variables.
TASK:
You should now create a second model using the much higher "Clinical Attack Rate" suggested by American papers. Since mortality estimates are very important as well, your model should include mortality for those patients who are not hospitalized (for this you use the CFR given in the previous paragraph) and for patients who are hospitalized, use the "Death-to-Hospitalization" rate given in the previous paragraph. For this second part of the model the Company suggests you work only the "High Severity" scenario.
Note: Here is hospital allocation - University Hospitals Coventry and Warwickshire NHS Trust. Monte Carlo simulation is the required model.
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Attachment:- PANDEMIC INFLUENZA.rar