You note that your officer is happy on 60% of your calls, so you assign a probability of his being happy on your visits as 0.6.You have noticed also that if he is happy, he accedes to your request with a probability of 0.4 whereas if he is not happy, he accedes to the request with a probability of 0.1.You call one day, and he accedes to your request what is the probability of his being happy?