Task:
You are deciding whether or not you want to manage a new project for your company. Since you are very ambitious, you want to decide whether this is in your best interest. You know that to be successful as a PM, your project must come in within the approved budget and be completed within the approved schedule. You do some research and learn the following:
a. The probability of a project in your company being under budget, based on historical data, is 60%.
b. The probability of a project in your company being within schedule, based on historical data, is 60%.
Part A: With only this information, what is the probability that a project manager will be successful? Ignore the fact that you are much smarter than other project managers, work harder, and doggone it, people like you.
Part B: You decide to do some more research and discover that being on schedule and within budget are not independent events. The probability of being both over budget and over schedule is 25%. What is the probability of being successful based on this new information?