Using fire in forest management sounds contradictory. Prescribed fire, however, is an important tool for foresters, and a recent article describes how decision analysis is used to decide when, where and what to burn. In one example, a number of areas in the Tahoe National Forest in California had been logged and were being prepared for replanting. Preparation included prescribed burning, and two possible treatments were available: burning the slash as it lay on the ground, or “yarding of unmerchantable material” (YUM) prior to burning. The latter treatment involves using heavyequipment to pile the slash. YUM reduces the difficulty of controlling the burn but costs an additional $100 per acre. In deciding between the two treatments, two uncertainties were considered critical. The first was how the fire would behave under each scenario. For example, the fire could be fully successful, problems could arise which could be controlled eventually, or the fire could escape, entailing considerable losses. Second, if problems developed, they could result in high, low, or medium costs.
Develop a decision tree for this situation.