Problem:
You have a network with a critical path A-B-C-D. For our purposes, you are allowed to ignore the other paths through the network. The values for optimistic (a), pessimistic (b) and most likely (m) durations for each task are as shown below. These are based on the probability that virtually all (at least 99.7%) of the values of each task fall within the range from a to b.
|
Task
|
a
|
m
|
b
|
TE
|
Var
|
Pred
|
|
A
|
6
|
8
|
12
|
|
|
-
|
|
B
|
3
|
4
|
6
|
|
|
A
|
|
C
|
3
|
9
|
12
|
|
|
A
|
|
D
|
5
|
5
|
7
|
|
|
B .0
|
Q1. What is the value of μ for the network?
Q2. What is the value of σμ2 for the network?
Q3. What is the probability that this network can be finished within 27 days?