Mr. Weiss just bought a zero-coupon bond issued by Risky Corp. for $870, with $1000 face value and one year to mature. He believes that the market will be in expansion with probability 0.9 and in recession with probability 0.1. In the event of expansion, Risky Corp. can always repay the debt. In the event of recession, the company would fail to meet its debt obligation. The bondholders would recover nothing and completely lose their investment, should the firm default. A zero-coupon government bond with the same maturity and face value is selling at $952.38. Assume that the government never defaults. The expected value and the standard deviation of the return of the market portfolio are 15% and 30%, respectively. Risky Corp’s bond return has a correlation of 0.67 with the market portfolio return. Assume that interest is compounded annually.
(a) Suppose Mr. Weiss holds the bond to maturity. What will be his holding period return if Risky Corp. does not default? What will be his holding period return if the firm defaults?
(b) What is the expected return of the Risky Corp. bond? Is the bond risky or riskfree? Explain.