Problem:
Moving Averages, Exponential Smoothing and Forecasting
1.The Snyder company percentages of all shipments that were received on time over the past 12 months are 80, 82, 84, 83, 83, 84, 85, 84, 82, 83, 84 and 83...
A. Compare a 3-month moving-averages forecast with an exponential smoothing forecast for a = 0.2 Which provides a better forecast?
Part
B. What is the forecast for next month?
2.The attached data represents fifteen quarters of manufacturing-capacity utilization (in percentages)
|
Quarter / Year
|
Utilization
|
Quarter / Year
|
Utilization
|
|
1/2000
|
82.5
|
1/2002
|
78.8
|
|
2/2000
|
81.3
|
2/2002
|
78.7
|
|
3/2000
|
81.3
|
3/2002
|
78.4
|
|
4/2000
|
79.0
|
4/2002
|
80.0
|
|
1/2001
|
76.6
|
1/2003
|
80.7
|
|
2/2001
|
78.0
|
2/2003
|
80.7
|
|
3/2001
|
78.4
|
3/2003
|
80.8
|
|
4/2001
|
78.0
|
|
|
A . Compute three, and four quarter moving averages for this time series. Which moving average provides the better forecast for the fourth quarter of 2003?
B. Use the smoothing constants of a = 0.4 and a = 0.5 to develop forecasts for the fourth quarter 2003. which smoothing constant provides a better forecast?
C. Based on the analysis in parts a and b, which method - moving averages or exponential smoothing - provides a better forecast?