Mean absolute percentage error for models

Question

Assignment:

For each forecast, set up columns and calculate:

Error

Squared error

Absolute error

Absolute % error

The numerator of Thiel"s U statistic

The denominator of Thiel"s U statistic

Calculate ME, MSE, RMSE, MAPE, and U.

Questions.

1 The absolute percentage error for the data point 9242008 returns #DIZ0! Value. The appropriate action is...

a exclude 9242008 entirely from data set
b Treat the reported error as a missing value when calculating the error statistics
c Replace the error by zero
d Replace the actual value of calls offered by a very small number e.g 1
e do nothing

2 The following statement about the error statistics for the two variables is true.

a the calculated mean squared error for both models are too large to be interpreted
b Model 1 systematically over predicts number of calls
c Thiel's U statistic indicate that naïve forecasting will produce better forecast than either model 1 or 2
d Model 2 is far superior to Model 1 in terms of mean error
e Neither model has any substantial bias.

3 The root mean squared error for models 1 and 2 respectively are

a 1018 and 1075
b 31 and 2
c .048 and .52
d 1036949 and 1156669
e .097 and .102

4 The mean absolute percentage error for models 1 and 2 respectively are

a 1018 and 1075
b 0.097 and .102
c .48 and .52
d 1036949 and 1156669
e 31 and 2

5 The error statistic indicate

a Naïve forecasting will produce better results than either model 1 or model 2
b Model 2 is better than model 1 based on RMSE and MAPE
c model 2 is better than model 1 because it has the lowest mean error
d model 1 is better than model 2 based on RMSE, MAPE, and Thiel's U statistic
e Both model 1 and model 2 provide reasonable forecast of calls offered based on MAPE.

Calls Offered	Forecast 1	Forecast 2	e1	e1^2	APE1	Num 1	Den 1	e2	e2^2	APE2	Num 2	Den 2			F1
8110	6673	7106												ME
7240	6553	7477												RMSE
6622	5570	6770												MAPE
6122	5725	6842												U
5120	4779	5880
6984	6738	7066
6757	6616	7052
6334	5624	6345
5820	5781	6369
5115	4825	5436
6204	6803	6801
7199	6680	6654
6475	5677	6155
5910	5836	6174
5082	4871	5329
6669	6868	6672
6098	6743	6798
6084	5731	6017
5591	5891	5907
4838	4917	5054
6285	6933	6436
6492	6807	6439
5742	5785	5912
5340	5947	5703
4436	4964	4854
5510	6998	6204
5760	6870	6124
0	5839	5483
6016	6002	4175
5260	5010	3764
6122	7062	5464
7202	6934	5701
7768	5893	4756
6736	6057	6139
6233	5056	5431
8105	7127	6879
7775	6997	7343
6752	5947	6383
6788	6113	6911
5629	5102	6084
7663	7192	7335
7218	7061	7512
6780	6001	6397
6414	6168	6862
5055	5148	5926
6586	7257	7196
6511	7125	7101
6239	6055	6016
5700	6223	6338
5088	5194	5307
6964	7322	6744
6399	7188	6819
5895	6109	5877
5907	6279	6043
4934	5240	5169
7642	7387	6661
7485	7252	6805
6228	6163	6144
6920	6334	6303
5543	5286	5568
7810	7452	7264
7388	7315	7280
6876	6217	6424
6601	6389	6728
2592	5332	5757
9182	7516	6895
7808	7379	7204
7094	6271	6494
5104	6445	6751
6267	5378	5069
	7581	7814
	7442	7437
	6325	6604
	6500	6441
	5424	5471