Six years of quarterly data of a seasonally adjusted series are used to estimate a linear trend model as t = 152.20 + 1.11t. In addition, quarterly seasonal indices are calculated as 1 = 0.97, 2 = 0.94, 3 = 1.17, and 4 = 1.09.
a-1. Interpret the first quarterly index. In other words, what is the value of the series in the first quarter as compared to the average?
97% below
3% above
3% below
97% above
a-2. Interpret the fourth quarterly index. In other words, what is the value of the series in the fourth quarter as compared to the average?
9% below
91% below
9% above
91% above
b. Make a forecast for all four quarters of next year. (Round your answers to 2 decimal places.)
Quarter 1
Quarter 2
Quarter 3
Quarter 4