In normal circumstances the zoo may be able to achieve its


In normal circumstances, the zoo may be able to achieve its target goal and attract an annual attendance equal to 40% of its community.  Approximately 35% of all visitors are adults. Children accounted for one-half of the paid attendance. Group admissions remain a constant 15% of zoo attendance.

Due to its northern climate, the zoo conducts its open season from mid-April until mid-October. It reopens for 1 week at Halloween and for the month of December. Zoo attendance depends largely on the weather. For example, attendance was down during the month of December 1995, which established many local records for the coldest temperature and the most snow. Variations in weather also affect crop yields and prices of fresh animal foods, thereby influencing the costs of animal maintenance.

YEAR

ATTENDANCE

ADMISSION FEE ($)

ADULT

CHILD

GROUP

1998

117,874

4.00

2.50

1.50

1997

125,363

3.00

2.00

1.00

1996

126,853

3.00

2.00

1.50

1995

108,363

2.50

1.50

1.00

1994

133,762

2.50

1.50

1.00

1993

95,504

2.00

1.00

0.50

1992

63,034

1.50

0.75

0.50

1991

63,853

1.50

0.75

0.50

1990

61,417

1.50

0.75

0.50

1989

53,353

1.50

0.75

0.50

Would simple linear regression analysis be the appropriate forecasting technique to calculate the expected gate admittance figures and revenues for both 1999 and 2000?

What factors other than admission price influence annual attendance and thus should be considered in the forecast?

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Basic Statistics: In normal circumstances the zoo may be able to achieve its
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