1 Market for lemons
Assume that a good second-hand car worths $10 to the seller and $12 to the buyer, an ordinary second-hand car worths $7 to the seller and $9 to the buyer, and a bad second-hand car worths $5 to the seller and $3 to the buyer. Assume that one third of the cars are good, one third are ordinary, and one third are bad.
- If the buyer can tell good or ordinary or bad, will the good cars sell? Will the ordinary cars sell? Will the bad cars sell?
- Now assume that the buyer cannot tell good or ordinary or bad but knows that the probabilities of a good, ordinary, and bad car are 1/3, respectively. How much will a risk neutral buyer be ready to pay?
- Will the seller keep the good cars in the market?
- Understanding this, now the buyer sees a car in the market. What are the probabil- ities that this car is good, ordinary, and bad, respectively?
- How much will the buyer be ready to pay now?
- Will the seller now keep the ordinary cars in the market?
- Understanding this, now the buyer sees a car in the market. What is the probability that this car is good, or ordinary, or bad?
- How much will the buyer be ready to pay now?
- Will the seller now keep the bad cars in the market?
- Will any car be sold?