547/15d
If Doug wants a 0.99 probability of completing the project on time, how far ahead of the scheduled meeting date should he begin working on the project?
Activity Expected Time Variance
A 2 0.03
B 3 0.44
C 2 0.11
D 2 0.03
E 1 0.03
F 2 0.11
G 4 0.44
H 4 0.11
I 2 0.03
Activities on critical path: A, B, G, H, I
E(T) = 2+3+4+4+2 = 15
Variance on critical path:
σ2= 0.03 + 0.44 + 0.44 + 0.11 + 0.03 = 1.05
From Probability Distribution Table, we find 0.99 probability occurs at z = +2.33.
Thus
Doug should begin working on the project 17.4 weeks ahead.