Assignment task: Please JUSTIFY or Agree/Disagree with the writer or Answer the Following in half page (SHORT NOTE). And please do mention if you are Justifying, Agreeing, Disagreeing or Answering the Following. Thanks
The note should have intext citations. For example, anything with numbers or quotes per paragraph. The intent citation just needs to be the Author's last name and year it was published. Please also include REFERENCES. Thanks
Identifying the best alternative or optimal decision strategy giving information about uncertain events and the possible payoff is the goal of decision analysis (Anderson et al, 2016). The decision analysis I explored in DQ 1 had two decision alternatives-hiking on weekdays (d1) or hiking on weekends (d2). These decision alternatives had two state of nature-high turnout for fellow hikers (s1), and low turnout for fellow hikers (s2). I created the decision tree based on the two decision alternatives and the two state of nature. I started with one decision node (1) and created two branches for each decision alternative (d1 and d2). The end of two branches are two chance nodes (2 and 3). Each chance node has two branches. At the end of each branch leaving the chance nodes are the state of nature (high turnout and low turnout for fellow hikers). I created the decision tree based on the two decision alternatives and two state of nature and selected a payoff (hike on weekend) based on the expected value of perfect information.
I would like to work for a pharmaceutical company as a project manager, and I think that decision analysis is key to new product development in the pharmaceutical industry. One application for this decision-making experience is making a decision based on outsourcing manufacturing equipment or producing the equipment within the company. We can apply a decision analysis on outsourcing equipment or manufacturing the equipment. I am sure I will be able to apply this decision-making experience in manufacturing or any industry.
Reference
Anderson, D. R., Sweeney, D. J., Williams, T. A., Camm, J. D., Cochran, J. L., Fry, M. J., & Ohlmann, J. W. (2016). Quantitative methods for business with CengageNOW (13th ed.). Boston, MA: Cengage Learning. ISBN-13: 9781305799257