Identify the sales trend over the period shown do the

Question

Production & Operations Management - MGT613

Table below shows its annual sales, demand and production demand over the period 1998 to 2005 (For both canvas and parachute material tents).

	TABLE , ANNUAL  VALUES OF  SALES, DEMAND AND PRODUCTION FOR PAKORG
YEAR	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005
SALES	214,200	202,100	192,500	189,000	198,300	213,400	241,400	231,100
DEMAND	150,000	155,000	125,000	200,000	225,000	245,000	175,000	185,000
PRODUCTION	155,000	155,000	185,000	185,000	185,000	185,000	185,000	185,000

1. Identify the sales trend over the period shown
2. Do the demand figures show cyclical fluctuations?
3. What happens on the sales trend if there is a prolong summer or a tragic incident like an earthquake or a flood.
4. Compute a three year and five year moving average demand forecast for both types of tents for the last five years (2001 to 2005).
5. The management provides a smoothing constant value of 0.1 and 0.6 and asks to record the differences between actual and forecaster demand values. The spread is narrow and wider for which smoothing constant?