Problem
I have been given a scene setter and asked to prepare some information. I have attached some information, tht should be of help in understanding .
Pirate attacks have become a major issue with multiple incidents, some of them resulting in the hijacking and ransom demands, occurring over the last months. It appears now clearly that Somali governmental forces will not be able to contain and control the situation, and the Somali government is likely to call for international support. The government of one of the countries neighbouring Somalia has reported that at least some pirate kingpins are making payment to Al-Shabaab that allow them to operate from areas in Somalia over which the terrorist organization exerts control. The same government estimates that between 20 and 40 percent of the sums obtained by pirates through hijacking and kidnapping for ransom might be diverted to Al Shabaab
Approaches to the scene setter
The objective is to draw lessons from what happened in the past and apply these lessons in the crisis context described in the scene setter.
Drivers
Identify the two main factors that you think drove security dynamics in the precedent and provide a short explanation (why adversaries did what they did).
The actors involved in the scene.
Prospects
Considering the drivers that you have identified, provide an assessment of the present (scene-setter) situation. This section must include an assessment of:
1) Most Likely: what is the most likely course of action for one of the actors identified in the scene setter (either Iran or pirates), with what consequences.
2) Most Dangerous: what is the most dangerous course of action for one of the actors identified in the scene setter (either Iran or pirates), with what consequences.