Assignment:
Activity has the purpose of assessing the students knowledge how to make a time series forecast using quantitative models.
1. The following data represents the average "delivery speed" to fulfill customer's orders in a hypothetical organization. In period 10, changes were made on the fulfillment process, as a result of an improvement Six Sigma initiative.
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Period→
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1
|
2
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3
|
4
|
5
|
6
|
7
|
8
|
9
|
10
|
|
Delivery Speed (days)
|
5
|
6
|
8
|
4
|
6
|
7
|
6
|
6
|
7
|
8
|
|
Period→
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11
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12
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13
|
14
|
15
|
16
|
17
|
18
|
19
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20
|
|
Delivery Speed (days)
|
6
|
4
|
5
|
6
|
5
|
4
|
8
|
4
|
7
|
4
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2. Explain if the change made in Period 10 was sound.
3. What is your forecast of delivery-speed in Period 21. You have to choose a model (consider at least three models and using the MAD explain which is the best.)