HIV Death Rates, which contains the death rates per 100,000 people for HIV related diseases in the US.
a. Make a scatter graph of the data with a trendline. Copy and paste the graph here.
b. Would you be confident in any prediction based on the equation of that trendline? Why or why not?
c. Make a scatter graph with a trendline of the data for the years 1997 to 2007 only. Copy and paste the graph here.
d. Will you have more confidence on any prediction based on this trendline? Why or why not?
e. Using the trendline equation on from the second graph, predict the HIV disease death rate for the year 2014. How much confidence do you have in this prediction? Why?
f. If you were interested in understanding the history of HIV related deaths in the US, which graphs you made above would be more informative?
REFLECT: When presented with a linear prediction made by someone else, what questions should you ask to determine whether you should have high confidence in the validity of that prediction?
Death Rates for Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) disease
|
Year
|
Deaths per 100,000 people
|
|
1987
|
5.6
|
|
1990
|
10.2
|
|
1992
|
13.1
|
|
1993
|
14.4
|
|
1994
|
16.0
|
|
1995
|
16.2
|
|
1996
|
11.5
|
|
1997
|
6.0
|
|
1998
|
4.9
|
|
1999
|
5.3
|
|
2000
|
5.2
|
|
2001
|
5.0
|
|
2002
|
4.9
|
|
2003
|
4.7
|
|
2004
|
4.5
|
|
2005
|
4.2
|
|
2006
|
4.0
|
|
2007
|
3.7
|