Hit or Miss Sports is introducing a new product this year. If its see-at-night soccer balls are a hit, the firm expects to be able to sell 68,000 units a year at a price of $50 each. If the new product is a bust, only 48,000 units can be sold at a price of $45. The variable cost of each ball is $20, and fixed costs are zero. The cost of the manufacturing equipment is $7.8 million, and the project life is estimated at 10 years. The firm will use straight-line depreciation over the 10-year life of the project. The firm’s tax rate is 35%, and the discount rate is 12%.
Hit or Miss Sports can expand production if the project is successful. By paying its workers overtime, it can increase production by 43,000 units; the variable cost of each ball will be higher, however, equal to $25 per unit. By how much does this option to expand production increase the NPV of the project? (Assume the probability the see-at-night soccer balls will be a hit is 50%).