Problem: Consider the given scenario analysis:
Rate of Return
Scenario Probability Stocks Bonds
Recession .20 -5% +14%
Normal economy .60 +15% +8%
Boom .20 +25% +4%
a) Is it reasonable to assume that Treasury bonds will provide higher returns in a recession than in booms? Why?
b) Calculate the expected rate of return and standard deviation for each investment.
c) Which investment would you prefer?