Higher returns in a recession than in booms


Problem: Consider the given scenario analysis:

Rate of Return
Scenario Probability Stocks Bonds

Recession           .20     -5%   +14%
Normal economy .60    +15% +8%
Boom                 .20     +25% +4%

a) Is it reasonable to assume that Treasury bonds will provide higher returns in a recession than in booms? Why?

b) Calculate the expected rate of return and standard deviation for each investment.

c) Which investment would you prefer?

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Finance Basics: Higher returns in a recession than in booms
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