The approach used in Problem 1(e) led to a disastrous prediction in the 1936 presidential election, in which Franklin Roosevelt defeated Alfred Landon by a landslide. A Landon victory had been predicted by the Literary Digest. The maga- zine based its prediction on the preferences of a sample of voters chosen from lists of automobile and telephone owners.
(a) Why do you think the Literary Digest's prediction was so far off ?
(b) Has anything changed between 1936 and now that would make you believe that the approach used by the Literary Digest would work better today?