Assignment:
Forecasts and actual sales of MP3 players at Just Say Music are as follows:
|
Month
|
Forecast
|
Actual Sales
|
|
March
|
150
|
170
|
|
April
|
220
|
229
|
|
May
|
205
|
192
|
|
June
|
256
|
241
|
|
July
|
250
|
238
|
|
August
|
260
|
210
|
|
September
|
270
|
225
|
|
October
|
280
|
179
|
a. What is the forecast for November, using a two-period moving average?
b. What is the forecast for November, using a three-period moving average?
c. Compute MSE for the two- and three-period moving average models and compare results.
d. For the data above, find the best single exponential smoothing model by evaluating the MSE from 0.1 to 0.9, in increments of 0.1. How does this model compare with the best moving average model found in problem 4?
Provide complete and step by step solution for the question and show calculations and use formulas.