Problem: Consider the project described:
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|
Immediate
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Activity Time Estimates
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|
Activity Predecessors Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic
|
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A
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-
|
1
|
6
|
11
|
|
B
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-
|
3
|
7
|
11
|
|
C
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A
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2
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6
|
10
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D
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B
|
4
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6
|
8
|
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E
|
C
|
3
|
9
|
15
|
|
F
|
D
|
5
|
9
|
13
|
a) Find the means and standard deviations of the activity times, assuming Beta distribution..
b) Draw an activity-on-arrow diagram for the project.
c) Using the mean activity times (in weeks) from part (a), carry out the forward and the backward pass calculations. Identify the critical path (B-D-F). What is the expected length of the critical path?
d) Find the probability that the project will take: i) no more than 24 weeks ; ii) at least 25 weeks.
e) Find the range for the project completion time for which there is a probability of 0.72 of finishing the project during this time interval.